The Production and Consumption of Commercial Real Estate Market Forecasts

Whilst the vast majority of the research on property market forecasting has concentrated on statistical methods of forecasting future rents, this report investigates the process of property market forecast production with particular reference to the level and effect of judgemental intervention in this process. Expectations of future investment performance at the levels of individual asset, sector, region, country and asset class are crucial to stock selection and tactical and strategic asset allocation decisions.  Given their centrality to investment performance, we focus on the process by which forecasts of rents and yields are generated and expectations formed.  A review of the wider literature on forecasting suggests that there are strong grounds to expect that forecast outcomes are not the result of purely mechanical calculations.Real Estate, Forecast, Real Estate Markets, Commercial Real Estate

Expert judgement in the Processes of Commercial Property Market Forecasting

In this paper we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial real estate markets. Based on interview surveys with the majority of forecast producers, we find that real estate forecasters are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self-censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in-house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling and that the impact of the influences within this process vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

Client Feedback and the Role of the Appraiser

Appraisers routinely work at solving ill-structured valuation problems where the normative performance criterion is an objective judgement of market value as of the valuation date. This study, theoretically grounded in the lens model of perceptual theory, investigates the effect of client feedback on appraisers’ perceptions of their role in the loan underwriting process. It investigates the extent of cognitive departure from the normative role toward perception of being a validator of pending sale prices. An instrument is devised to measure environmental perception feedback, coercive feedback and positive reinforcement of the normative performance criterion. Client feedback is found to have a significant effect on appraisers’ role perceptions and on appraisers’ perceptions of the of the lender-client’s performance criterion. Appraisers who receive a great deal of environmental perception feedback and coercive feedback are more likely to view themselves as price validators, whereas appraisers exposed to positive reinforcement of the normative performance criterion are more likely view themselves as providers of objective opinions of market value.

Applied sensor fault detection, identification and data reconstruction based on PCA and SOMNN for industrial systems

The paper presents two readily implementable approaches for Sensor Fault Detection, Identification (SFD/I) and faulted sensor data reconstruction in complex systems, in real-time. Specifically, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Map Neural Networks (SOMNNs) are demonstrated for use on industrial turbine systems. In the first approach, Squared Prediction Error (SPE) based on the PCA residual space is used for SFD. SPE contribution plot is employed for SFI. A missing value approach from an extension of PCA is applied for faulted sensor data reconstruction. In the second approach, SFD is performed by SOMNN based Estimation Error (EE), and SFI is achieved by EE contribution plot. Data reconstruction is based on an extension of the SOMNN algorithm. The results are compared in each examining stage. The validation of both approaches is demonstrated through experimental data during the commissioning of an industrial 15MW turbine

Resonant electron transmission through a finite quantum spin chain

Electron transport in a finite one dimensional quantum spin chain (with ferromagnetic exchange) is studied within an $s-d$ exchange Hamiltonian. Spin transfer coefficients strongly depend on the sign of the $s-d$ exchange constant. For a ferromagnetic coupling, they exhibit a novel resonant pattern, reflecting the salient features of the combined electron-spin system. Spin-flip processes are inelastic and feasible at finite voltage or at finite temperature.Comment: 4 pages including 4 .eps figure

Measuring Aerosol Phase Changes and Hygroscopicity with a Microresonator Mass Sensor.

The interaction between atmospheric aerosol particles and water vapor influences aerosol size, phase, and composition, parameters which critically influence their impacts in the atmosphere. Methods to accurately measure aerosol water uptake for a wide range of particle types are therefore merited. We present here a new method for characterizing aerosol hygroscopicity, an impaction stage containing a microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) microresonator. We find that deliquescence and efflorescence relative humidities (RHs) of sodium chloride and ammonium sulfate are easily diagnosed via changes in resonant frequency and peak sharpness. These agree well with literature values and thermodynamic models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that, unlike other resonator-based techniques, full hygroscopic growth curves can be derived, including for an inorganic-organic mixture (sodium chloride and malonic acid) which remains liquid at all RHs. The response of the microresonator frequency to temperature and particle mechanical properties and the resulting limitations when measuring hygroscopicity are discussed. MEMS resonators show great potential as miniaturized ambient aerosol mass monitors, and future work will consider the applicability of our approach to complex ambient samples. The technique also offers an alternative to established methods for accurate thermodynamic measurements in the laboratory

Laser induced fluorescence characterization of ions emitted from hollow cathodes

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/76900/1/AIAA-1999-2862-539.pd

Comprehensive modeling study of ozonolysis of oleic acid aerosol based on real-time, online measurements of aerosol composition

The chemical composition of organic aerosols profoundly influences their atmospheric properties, but a detailed understanding of heterogeneous and in-particle reactivity is lacking. We present here a combined experimental and modeling study of the ozonolysis of oleic acid particles. An online mass spectrometry (MS) method, Extractive Electrospray Ionization (EESI), is used to follow the composition of the aerosol at a molecular level in real time; relative changes in the concentrations of both reactants and products are determined during aerosol aging. The results show evidence for multiple non-first-order reactions involving stabilized Criegee intermediates, including the formation of secondary ozonides and other oligomers. Offline liquid chromatography MS is used to confirm the online MS assignment of the monomeric and dimeric products. We explain the observed EESI-MS chemical composition changes, and chemical and physical data from previous studies, using a process-based aerosol chemistry simulation, the Pretty Good Aerosol Model (PG-AM). In particular, we extend previous studies of reactant loss by demonstrating success in reproducing the time dependence of product formation and the evolving particle size. This advance requires a comprehensive chemical scheme coupled to the partitioning of semivolatile products; relevant reaction and evaporation parameters have been refined using our new measurements in combination with PG-AM.This work was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC grant NE/I528277/1) and the European Research Council (ERC starting grant 279405 and the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Interactions (ACCI) project, grant 267760). PTG thanks NCAS Climate for support

Discovery of Candidate H2_2O Disk Masers in AGN and Estimations of Centripetal Accelerations

Based on spectroscopic signatures, about one-third of known H$_2$O maser sources in active galactic nuclei (AGN) are believed to arise in highly inclined accretion disks around central engines. These "disk maser candidates" are of interest primarily because angular structure and rotation curves can be resolved with interferometers, enabling dynamical study. We identify five new disk maser candidates in studies with the Green Bank Telescope, bringing the total number published to 30. We discovered two (NGC1320, NGC17) in a survey of 40 inclined active galaxies (v_{sys}< 20000 kms^{-1}). The remaining three disk maser candidates were identified in monitoring of known sources: NGC449, NGC2979, NGC3735. We also confirm a previously marginal case in UGC4203. For the disk maser candidates reported here, inferred rotation speeds are 130-500 kms^{-1}. Monitoring of three more rapidly rotating candidate disks (CG211, NGC6264, VV340A) has enabled measurement of likely orbital centripetal acceleration, and estimation of central masses (2-7x10^7 M_\odot) and mean disk radii (0.2-0.4pc). Accelerations may ultimately permit estimation of distances when combined with interferometer data. This is notable because the three AGN are relatively distant (10000<v_{sys}<15000 kms^{-1}). As signposts of highly inclined geometries at galactocentric radii of \sim0.1-1pc, disk masers also provide robust orientation references that allow analysis of (mis)alignment between AGN and surrounding galactic stellar disks, even without interferometric mapping. We find no preference among published disk maser candidates to lie in high-inclination galaxies, providing independent support for conclusions that central engines and galactic plane orientations are not correlated. (ABRIDGED)Comment: 7 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ, Dec. 10, 200

Suppression of tumour-specific CD4+ T cells by regulatory T cells is associated with progression of human colorectal cancer

Background. There is indirect evidence that T cell responses can control the metastatic spread of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, an enrichment of CD4(+)Foxp3(+) regulatory T cells (Tregs) has also been documented. Objective. To evaluate whether CRC promotes Treg activity and how this influences anti-tumour immune responses and disease progression. Methods. A longitudinal study of Treg activity on a cohort of patients was performed before and after tumour resection. Specific CD4(+) T cell responses were also measured to the tumour associated antigens carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and 5T4. Results. Tregs from 62 preoperative CRC patients expressed a highly significant increase in levels of Foxp3 compared to healthy age-matched controls (p=0.007), which returned to normal after surgery (p=0.0075). CD4(+) T cell responses to one or both of the tumour associated antigens, CEA and 5T4, were observed in approximately two-thirds of patients and one third of these responses were suppressed by Tregs. Strikingly, in all patients with tumour recurrence at 12 months, significant preoperative suppression was observed of tumour-specific (p=0.003) but not control CD4(+) T cell responses. Conclusion. These findings demonstrate that the presence of CRC drives the activity of Tregs and accompanying suppression of CD4(+) T cell responses to tumour-associated antigens. Suppression is associated with recurrence of tumour at 12 months, implying that Tregs contribute to disease progression. These findings offer a rationale for the manipulation of Tregs for therapeutic intervention